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Trump’s tariff plan could boomerang, spark trade wars with China,…

WASHINGTON ( ) – Donald Trump’s threats to slap steep tariffs on Chinese and Mexican imports may have won him votes in Republican primaries but they would likely backfire, severely disrupting U.S. manufacturers that increasingly depend on global supply chains.

The Republican presidential front-runner’s campaign pledges to impose 45 percent tariffs on all imports from China and 35 percent on many goods from Mexico would spark financial market turmoil and possibly even a recession, former trade negotiators, trade lawyers, economists and business executives told .

“I don’t mind trade wars when we’re losing $58 billion a year,” Trump said in a Feb. 25 debate, referring to the 2015 U.S. goods trade deficit with Mexico. Economists dispute the idea the United States is “losing” money as the trade deficit is simply the difference between what the United States imports and what it exports to a country.

“Imposing tariffs or putting up trade barriers may sound good, but it will hurt our economy and credibility,” said Wendy Cutler, the former acting deputy U.S. Trade Representative who helped lead U.S. negotiations in the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal last year.

Among those hardest hit would be the U.S. auto industry, which has fully integrated Mexico into ,上海品茶交友群Paisley,its production network. Some $118 billion worth of vehicles and parts flowed north and south across the border tariff-free last year, according to U.S. Commerce Department data.

A 35 percent tariff would raise costs for Ford Motor Co’s U.S.-assembled F-series and medium-duty pickup trucks that use Mexican-made diesel engines, one of its most profitable vehicle lines. (Graphic on U.S.-Mexico auto and parts trade: tmsnrt.rs/1UN3wun)

Ford CEO Mark Fields on Wednesday defended the company’s investment strategy, which includes $9 billion for U.S. plants over the next four years, saying, “We will do what makes sense for the business.”

Buyers of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV’s popular Ram 1500 pickup trucks assembled in Saltillo, Mexico, could see their $26,000 base price pushed up by $9,000 if the tariff is fully passed on to consumers. A Chrysler spokesman declined to comment on Trump’s statements.

Trump’s campaign said in a statement that U.S. trade policy constitutes “unilateral economic surrender” and needs complete change because it allows foreign competitors to shut out U.S imports, devalue their currencies and unfairly target U.S. industries.

“I don’t think he does our issue any favors by making it so incredibly jingoistic and bombastic,” said Scott Paul, president of the Alliance for American Manufacturing, a group that allies domestic steelmakers and other manufacturers with the United Steelworkers union.

“But I believe there’s widespread agreement … that there is something amiss with our economic relationship with China and it’s past time that our government pushes back a little more forcefully.”

LOWER INCOMES ,上海品茶QQPamela,

It would take years for U.S. industry to rebuild supply chains devastated by sudden tariff hikes on Chinese and Mexican goods and any retaliatory measures, said Peter Petri, a Brandeis University professor who has co-authored an influential study on the effects of the TPP trade deal on national income.

Even if U.S. firms were ab上海品茶QQle to make such a transition, Petri said this would likely result in a permanent annual reduction in U.S. national income of more than $100 billion, or 0.8 percent.

Trump’s tariff plans would effectively violate NAFTA and revoke U.S. commitments to the World Trade Organization, say trade lawyers.

Beijing and Mexico City “are just going to retaliate on the things that are likely to hurt us most,” said Susan Schwab, the U.S. Trade Representative from 2006 to 2009 in the George W. Bush administration. Schwab negotiated major portions of free trade agreements with South Korea, Colombia and Panama.

In 2009, Mexico slapped duties up to 25 percent on more than 90 different U.S. farm goods, from pork to frozen potatoes due to foot-dragging by U.S. lawmakers on allowing Mexican truckers on to U.S. roads, as specified under NAFTA. The National Potato Council estimates that U.S. growers lost about $70 million in revenue over 31 months, a 50 percent cut from their third-largest export market.

Mexico’s economy minister, Ildefonso Guajardo said last week that big tariffs on Mexico would return the United States to “an isolationist, xenophobic and protectionist vision.”

And a full-scale tariff war with China would likely expose the largest U.S. export sectors to steep duties, including aircraft, semiconductors, corn and soybeans, trade lawyers said.

Retaliatory tariffs would also hurt growing U.S. vehicle exports to China – at 300,000 a year now equivalent to the annual output of a large assembly plant. General Motors Co is now planning to import a Buick sport-utility vehicle from a Chinese joint venture plant.

A GM spokesman declined to comment.

China’s state-run Global Times newspaper called Trump “big-mouthed, anti traditional and abusively forthright” in an editorial, but did not directly address his tariff proposals.

UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES

A long-running U.S.-China trade dispute over solar panels illustrates how tariffs can sometimes cause unanticipated damage.

In 2012, the U.S. Commerce Department slapped anti-dumping duties of up to 78 percent on Chinese solar panels after German-owned SolarWorld AG complained that below-cost Chinese imports were hurting its U.S. production.

China responded with its own 57 percent duties against U.S. producers of polycrystalline silicon, the raw material for photovoltaic cells. This put the brakes on an industry that was fast expanding to meet demand from Chinese solar panel makers.

Hemlock Semiconductor, controlled by Dow Corning, abandoned construction of a $1.5 billion new polysilicon plant in 2014. Dow Corning spokesman Jarrod Erpelding said Hemlock “serves as a strong example of how trade disputes often have unintended consequences.”

“This is really stupid,” said Francine Sullivan, chief legal officer of REC Silicon in Moses Lake, Washington, which halted production this year. “The necessity and value in putting on tariffs to protect solar panels in the U.S. was just not thought through. We’ve suffered enormous financial damage as a result of this.”

The Trump campaign said measures like tariffs would level the playing field and help bring “millions of manufacturing jobs back to the United States.”

But Durwin “Oodie” Royal, a furnace operator at U.S. Steel Corp’s Lone Star Tubular Operations in Texas, knows first-hand that such relief can be temporary.

Workers at the plant cheered when the United States imposed anti-dumping duties on Chinese drilling pipe in 2009 and 2011. But the company announced on Friday that it would temporarily idle the tube mill, laying off 450 workers as it battles a slump in U.S. oil and gas drilling, a continued global steel glut and “unfairly traded imports.”

“When they slap tariffs on one country, the imports just come in from another country,” said Royal, who expects to be among those workers who are idled.

Af,上海品茶工作室Babette,ter the tariffs were imposed on China, South Korean imports surged, he said. “Right now, we’re just limping along like everybody else.”

The state of play at Swansea City in final month of transfer window: New signings, potential exits and a huge role to fill

There’s less than a month to go until the summer transfer window closes.

And with Swansea City beginning their 2019/20 Championship campaign against Hull City at the Liberty Stadium in just 24 days, time is running out for Steve Cooper’s men to complete their business before the new season.

Here’s the current state of play at SA1 and a detailed look at what could happen in the final weeks of the window.

New signings

Jake Bidwell became Cooper’s first signing as Swansea boss when he put pen to paper on a three-year deal with the club earlier this month.

The 26-year-old’s arrival is a welcome one following the departure of,上海品茶会所Balthazar, Martin Olsson, with former Everton, Brentford and Queens Park Rangers defender Bidwell set to compete with Declan John for the left-back spot.

But further additions still need to be made.

Swansea desperately need more options at centre-back while they are also thin on cover in other areas including up front.

Jake Bidwell has signed a three-year deal with Swansea (Image: Swansea City FC)

And encouragingly for the Jack Army, chairman Trevor Birch recently revealed the Swans are looking to bring in more players in the coming weeks.

“We are still looking to bring a couple more in before the season starts but, of course, we still need to do that with the mindset of re-balancing the squad from a wage frame perspective,” he said.

Speaking at his unveiling, Cooper admitted the Swans will need to be “creative” in the loan market too.

But after two immensely difficult windows under Graham Potter, the hope is that the big earners can be moved on to ensure that Cooper is able to keep hold of those most vital to him for the upcoming campaign.

Which brings us nicely to the next point…

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Exits

The Swans lost Daniel James early on in the window, with the winger joining Manchester United shortly after Wales’ Euro 2020 qualifiers with Croatia and Hungary.

He joins the likes of Wilfried Bony, Olsson, Luciano Narsingh and Leroy Fer – who were all released by the Swans – in heading for the exit door this summer.

And there will no doubt be further departures from the club.

Jordan Ayew, Borja Baston and Andre Ayew are likely to move on this summer

Swansea are eager to offload the likes of Andre Ayew, Jordan Ayew, Borja Baston and Jefferson Montero to balance the books following last year’s relegation from the Premier League.

Jordan Ayew is set to complete a £2.5m switch to Crystal Palace in the near future, although the club are still trying to find suitors for the other three.

In addition to those expected exits, there are those who will feature prominently in Cooper’s plans that attract interest this summer as a result of their efforts during the 2018/19 campaign, Oli McBurnie being the prime example.

The Scot has been heavily linked with Sheffield United, although Swansea will do everything in their power to keep the striker in South Wales.

And clubs could yet swoop for some of McBurnie’s team mates.

Connor Roberts, Matt Grimes and Joe Rodon were among those to impress last season, but if the aforementioned big earners can be removed from the wage bill, Swansea will be in a far stronger position to turn down any potential offers for McBurnie and others.

Swansea City’s Oli McBurnie

Under-23s

No fewer than nine players from th爱上海419e club’s academy featured for the first team under Potter last term.

And it seems that Cooper could well continue to tap in to the knowledge of Cameron Toshack and Gary Richards during his tenure at the Liberty.

The 39-year-old included six members of the youth set-up in his squad for Swansea’s week-long training camp in Spain.

Brandon Cooper, Jack Evans, Jordon Garrick, Joe Lewis, Liam Cullen and Ben Cabango joined the first team stars in training on the Continent and will be hoping to prove their worth to the manager in the remaining weeks of pre-season with a view to breaking into his squad.

The pathway is there for all to see. Only time will tell which players are capable of making the step up.

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Head of recruitment

Following Kyle Macaulay’s move to Brighton in May, the Swans have been on the look out for a new head of recruitment.

Birch has worked closely with club legends Alan Curtis and Leon Britton – and also Cooper since the former England Under-17s coach arrived at the Liberty – to scout new players.

But he is also on the lookout for Macaulay’s replacement, a figure the club are hoping to appoint prior to the start of the new season.

Swansea City chairman Trevor Birch

Speaking about their search, Birch recently said: “The next vital cog in the club restructuring will be the addition of a head of recruitment. While it’s something we’ve been working on for a while, I feel we are getting closer and a shortlist should be in place very soon.

“It’s vital we make the right appointment for the long-term future of the club, so it is not something we are going to rush. If we have to wait a bit longer than we aimed for, then so be it.”

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Pre-season

Cooper watched his players in action for the first tie as they took on Mansfield Town in a friendly in Portugal last weekend.

Goals from Wayne Routledge and Barri,上海品茶微信Halsey,e McKay ensured Swansea came from behind to secure a 2-1 win over the Stags.

The games continue to come thick and fast now that the Swans are back on home soil, with Cooper’s men facing Crawley Town, Yeovil Town, Exeter, Bristol Rovers and Atalanta prior to their season opener against Hull.

It will give fans an insight into how Cooper plans to set-up his side this season while we will also get a flavour of the key differences he hopes to tweak from last season.

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